It Makes Me Nervous When We All Agree: Part II
Updates on 2024 polling and why things have been quiet around here
Just before the 2022 election, I sent out a note to this very newsletter list titled “It Makes Me Nervous When We All Agree”. We were on the eve of the 2022 election, and The Punditry had converged around the same set of points about the likely result of the midterm. Republicans had the upper hand, a little. Those in the data-adjacent universe were generally not out there predicting “Red Tsunami incoming!!!!!!” but the consensus was that it would be likely be a good night for the G.O.P.
I wrote that post because any time everyone is saying the same thing in unison, I grow suspicious that there’s some massive blind spot that everyone is missing. I start to squint a little harder when looking at the data to make sure there’s not something hiding in plain sight that would suggest a different outcome.
I feel a little bit like that today. On June 27th, the day of the now-infamous Biden-Trump debate disaster in Atlanta, I sat in front of the TV aghast, completely convinced that Democrats needed to change the top of their ticket, and do it fast. The President’s subsequent performances in press conferences and TV interviews have not instilled great confidence. And yet. As I wrote for The New York Times in the week after the debate…
He may also be inoculated from a sudden polling decline of more than a few points because of the way our current deep polarization has frozen our politics. For better or worse, his candidacy has been not so much about him as about him not being Mr. Trump.
It feels increasingly like the smart people whose analysis I respect are converging around “It’s Joe-ver”. It is always fun to sit next to David Axelrod on set at CNN and he’s been banging this drum for a long time now, anticipating that if things don’t change, Biden will lose “by a landslide”. CNN’s John King broke the news last night that respected Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg has been circulating memos described as “devastating,” “lose everything” predictions.
All I’ll say is this: I remember watching Saturday Night Live when, shortly after the Access Hollywood tape story broke, Lin-Manuel Miranda came out singing a bit of “never gonna be president now” during his musical monologue. I remember on Election Night 2016, coming out of the early exit poll briefing with my note pad and feeling sure that the data pointed to a certain outcome; that night would play out a lot differently than the 5:30 pm notes would suggest. (I wrote a little about that night and the cameo role now-Vice Presidential Nominee J.D. Vance played in it over at, yes, the Times.)
My point is simply that nothing is done until its done, and in the eight years since that election I’ve become increasingly wary of being swept up in DC-bubble groupthink. After all, the whole point of being a pollster is to care about voices outside the bubble in which you live. Your whole job is to go ask those voices how they feel, and to listen to them!
And so, today, over at The New York Times (sensing a theme here?), I’ve got a piece about why I think it is a little too early to go all in on “the election is over, Trump landslide confirmed” right now.
I don’t want to sugarcoat things for anxious supporters of Mr. Biden, though. At the moment, the numbers are bad for your candidate. The likelihood of a Trump victory is considerable…
But I think the doomsday thinking of Democrats today is eerily similar to the resignation felt by many Republican elites in the wake of Mr. Trump’s nomination in 2016. “The top of the ticket is toast, so save whomever you can down-ballot and let’s regroup after November” was a sentiment I heard somewhat frequently back then. Of course, we know how that turned out.
I think that President Biden’s condition seems very concerning to me, setting all electoral concerns aside. I am worried for him and for our country. I think that the polls should not determine for him whether he stays in this race, because it seems crystal clear to me that he is not the same man he was even four years ago, that time marches on, and he would be wise to step aside regardless.
There is no “no risk” strategy facing Democrats right now.
But I just feel like the growing consensus that we’re all just waiting for the inevitable Trump victory is perhaps a tiny bit premature. As I said: I get nervous when we all agree.
As you’ve by now noted I’ve been doing a lot of writing over at The New York Times lately. I’ve also been doing a lot less writing here. At first, that was due to the arrival of baby Sophie back in March. But shortly after she was born, I began a new role as a contributing Opinion writer at the Times. In that role, I’ll do things like periodic longer guest essays, appear from time to time in audio, and from now through the election I’ll be writing up a weekly polling analysis digest over at the Opinion Daily newsletter on Tuesdays.
I wanted to send out a little note to this list explaining my relative absence. This Substack isn’t going anywhere; when I want to write up thoughts that are maybe a bit too loosely-formed or personal or rambling to fit in the pages of our nation’s newspaper of record, you’ll find them here.
Thank you for hanging in there even through the radio silence. I’m not gone, I’m just writing a lot more for The Gray Lady.