Are any of Trump's voters really shopping around?
Some thoughts on the latest data about the Republican primary and Trump's dominance.
Imagine, for a moment, that you really like meatloaf. You know it isn’t everyone’s favorite food, maybe it’s a little old-fashioned, but it is comfortable to you. There’s a restaurant down the street from your house that serves a few different things on the menu that you like just fine, but when you’re really hungry, the answer is always: meatloaf.
Now imagine you’ve walked into that restaurant and the server approaches your table. “We have a few specials on the menu tonight.” Ah, something new perhaps? Mushroom risotto? Fish of the day?
But no. You’re pretty hungry. Let’s go with what you know. “I’ll have the meatloaf.”
My friends, Donald Trump is the meatloaf. And there are a lot of Trump primary voters out there who are saying that, sure, they want to hear the specials. But when push comes to shove, I suspect they’re ordering the meatloaf.
A question I am constantly asked is what is Donald Trump’s “floor” in the Republican primary. Depending on my mood that day, the ambient temperature and humidity of the air or the alignment of the planets, I usually peg the number somewhere between 30 and 35%. It is hard to imagine him getting less than that, come hell or high water. That means that, with Trump running near 60% in a lot of national polls, somewhere between 25 and 30% of Republican voters are who we might call “Trump And…” voters.
They’re considering Trump, but they’re also considering the specials. They’d like to look at the menu before they order.
I moderated a focus group last week for The New York Times with eleven of these voters. They said they liked Trump, and currently leaned toward voting for him, but were still keeping their options open. A few said they were still a little intrigued by Vivek Ramaswamy. Some wanted to hear a little more from Nikki Haley.
If you’re someone who is desperately hoping that Donald Trump is not ultimately the Republican nominee, here are the biggest glass-half-full takeaways I have for you coming out of a review of the available polling data and my focus group findings.
Primary voters have still - still - not tuned in very much. Despite two debates and a campaign season that has felt never-ending, a lot of Americans are fully exhausted by the news. For many primary voters I spoke to in a prior focus group round, they weren’t even really planning to watch the early debates because they were waiting for the field to narrow. Essentially, the menu of options looked to them like the Cheesecake Factory’s interminable encyclopedia of entrees and they were waiting for the winnowing. As a result, when you ask primary voters what they think about people like Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley, their perception is a loosely-assembled collection of anecdata and vibes. All of which is to say, these voters could tune in more closely as January approaches and decide they like what they see after all.
Primary voters are not unaware of Trump’s flaws. In mixed company, Republican voters are loathe to say a bad word about the party’s most prominent figure. But in a group where it’s a friendly, likeminded room of fellow travelers on the Trump-ish Train, they’ll say what they really think. He has baggage. His mouth. He’s so immature some times. They know it. Crass. Brazen. And no, for many of these voters, these are in fact bugs not features. The die-hards? The 30-35%? They may not care. But the “Trump Ands…” know he’s not perfect. To return to my now-abused restaurant metaphor: they know the meatloaf probably isn’t the healthiest option on the menu.
And yet. I nevertheless come away from looking at all of this - the focus group respondents who say they “felt a whole lot safer with our past president”, the survey data that shows Republicans think Trump is probably the most electable of the bunch - and realize that a lot of the view of Trump as a risky proposition has it all backwards. For these “Trump And…” voters, he’s not the risky bet. He’s the known quantity. He’s safety. He’s meatloaf.
One final caveat: I will be very curious to see how the instability atop the Republican Party in the House affects things (I suspect very little, but that could change the longer this Speaker drama drags out). I will also be curious to see how Trump’s bungled initial response to the Israel crisis affects that perception. Over a thousand Israeli civilians slaughtered in cold blood while cowering in bomb shelters with their grandmothers and celebrating peace at a music festival, and your initial response is to make it all about you?
Whether it’s Nikki Haley’s ability to point to her consistent standing up to ridiculousness at the U.N. in the name of standing with Israel during her tenure as ambassador, or Ron DeSantis getting Floridians evacuated on charter flights, I suspect the horrible events of the last two weeks have gotten a lot of Americans - including primary voters - more tuned into world events. There’s also a third debate coming up, one where the stage is likely to be much less crowded than the last two.
If the candidates on stage can get past the temptation to merely run for 2nd place, there’s a small but non-zero chance this race could get interesting. But for now, barring massive changes or disruption, a lot of these “Trump And…” voters seem pretty poised to go with what they know.
“Ma, meatloaf!”
Kristin, 2 questions. First why am I not getting more Codebook emails from you. You have too many important things to say for so few emails. Second question. Other than rich people who made a lot in the market while he was President, I know of no one whose life was made better while Trump was President. So what is the draw?
Yes, primary voters are still asleep! How else can Trump’s ineptness legal issues be explained? Your analysis brings to light some key points about where America is right now! Hopefully, people will withdraw their heads from the sand and form their opinions based upon factual information!